WhoScored Tipster: The Weekend's Top Game Picks

Juventus vs Udinese

This weekend's blockbuster clash in Serie A sees two sets of black and white stripes clash as Udinese visit Turin to take on leaders Juventus.

Juventus find themselves as 1.57 favourites for the game, despite having an inferior record in the recent head-to-head between these sides.

The Old Lady are unbeaten this campaign but only lead the Zebras (in 3rd place) by three points. The key behind the visitors’ lofty position in the standings is the best home record in the league, winning nine of their ten games at Friuli and drawing the other.

This game looks set to be a tight affair due to the vital nature of its result in the Scudetto hunt, but also as it features Serie A’s two best defences. Whilst Udinese’s defence hasn’t been as tight as it was in recent weeks, Juve’s has improved even further, conceding just one goal in their last six and giving us plenty of confidence in backing the Under 2.5 goals on the Goal Line at 1.75.

If you’re looking for a bigger price to back, then consider the Half Time/Full Time market. If every game this season had finished after fourty-five minutes then Udinese would be top, with just four goals conceded in nineteen. In a fixture of such importance, you can once again expect the Zebras to keep it tight in the first period before perhaps trying to nick the game after the break. For those who think that the hosts’ excellent form and stronger squad will give them the edge, Draw/Juventus is 4.00, but if you fancy the away side to steal an unexpected three points towards the end then Draw/Udinese is out at 13.00

Villarreal vs Barcelona

Last year, the yellow submarine qualified for the Champions League playing excellent football and looked set to push on to establish their place as a regular top four contender. What happened in the summer is a mystery, but losing the heartbeat of the team – Santi Cazorla – can only explain so much, and their catastrophic collapse into a side that is second-bottom and staring at the very real possibility of relegation. The football being played at El Madrigal is still good, only Real Madrid and Barcelona can boast a higher pass success rate,

 
but they simply can’t seem to score goals. Only Granada and rock-bottom Zaragoza have scored fewer, and this is due to the long-term absences of both Guiseppe Rossi and Nilmar. With the latter now sold to Sao Paulo in his native Brazil, Villarreal are further weakened up front and it is tempting to back either the Barcelona clean sheet at 1.83, or Barcelona to win to nil at 2.00.

Not only are the stats supporting Villarreal’s label as an attractive passing side, but they also paint a picture of why they will struggle to unlock Barca. Only one side plays fewer long balls per game than them, only the top two average more short passes or through balls per game than them, but this passing football is not likely to trouble the Blaugrana defence. It was the physicality of Llorente and Bielsa’s pressing game that caused problems as Athletic took points off of the champions, Jeremy Mathieu’s surging runs and crossing was vital as Valencia did the same, but Villarreal’s thoughtful passing to create chances (something they do very well – even if they don’t score them) is not likely to be something that will breach Barcelona’s backline.

Therefore, if you were looking for a bigger-priced bet then consider the correct score market, where 0-3 looks a good bet at 7.5.

Bayern Munich vs Wolfsburg

The hosts will be itching to get back to winning ways after Borussia Mönchengladbach completed the double over Bayern and threw open the Bundesliga title race last week. With just one point now separating the top four sides, Jupp Heynckes knows that his side can’t afford to drop too many more points, especially as their title rivals won’t have the same continental commitments as they do.

Wolfsburg are mid-table, but have a shocking away record that won’t give them any confidence going to the Allianz Arena. Just four points came on their travels in the first half of the season, with a goal differential of -16 while the Bavarians are formidable at home in seemingly every way possible.

Averaging 66% possession at home, with a pass success rate of nearly 90% it is no surprise that visitors to play Bayern frequently go home empty handed as they rarely get the ball! Meanwhile, only Cologne and Augsburg average less possession than Wolfsburg in the Bundesliga, so this one could be all about how well the hosts take advantage of their seemingly inevitable dominance – with their home record and goal difference suggesting they shouldn’t have too much problem doing so.

Having only conceded 3 at home all season, Bayern look like another team to back in the ‘win to nil’ market and are available at 1.95. Another bet to look at would be the goalscorers, where Mario Gomez (with 16 already this campaign) is the man to back. The points on the WhoScored match forecast (above) seems to point towards him netting in this game, and it may even be worth getting on him to bag a brace.

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