Sunday evening will see two of European football's grandest clubs meet in one of the most high profile matches of the year as Milan face Inter in the 205th Derby della Madonnina. As rivalries go it is also one of the closest; Milan have won on 72 occasions, just one more than their city cousins, with 61 draws. Incredibly each side have scored 279 goals in those previous meetings.
Inter have recovered from a disastrous start to 2011-12, moving from just outside the relegation places to now sit fifth in Serie A and closing the gap on champions and league leaders Milan to just eight points. To do so they have won their last five consecutive games - and seven of their last eight - being particularly superb defensively, conceding just one goal during their current winning streak.
By contrast Milan have been excellent at the other end of the pitch, scoring a league high 37 goals, five more than their closest rival and ten more than the Nerazzurri. Undoubtedly this latest meeting will be a close encounter, with Inter leaning on their much-improved defence and Milan looking to their undisputed leader Zlatan Ibrahimovic. The Swede has already scored twice in three games against his former club and is Serie A's joint leading scorer this term with twelve goals. Using WhoScored.com's stats database, here are six key factors that may decide this huge match up;
Creativity
To the surprise of many Antonio Cassano still leads the league in terms of assists with seven, despite only featuring in the first nine games of the Rossoneri season. Close behind him is team-mate Alberto Aquilani who has provided for six goals despite enduring a poor season. Inter are led in this department by Maicon and Ricky Álvarez with four each, the latter making a huge impact in his five starts thus far. With Claudio Ranieri switching formations to include a trequartista, it may mean the young Argentinian misses out once Wesley Sneijder returns to full fitness.
Passing
In terms of general passing, again an unexpected name tops the list with Inter's Thiago Motta averaging almost twenty completed passes per game more than any player on either side. Marc van Bommel's 64.1 is the closest to the Italian international's 82, closely followed by Thiago Silva with 62.2 and Alessandro Nesta's 62. Wesley Sneijder is second for the Nerazzurri on 52.8, while in terms of accuracy Silva narrowly leads the way on 90.7% ahead of Javier Zanetti's 90.1%.
Tackling
Trying to stop the remarkable array of attacking talent on display will take some real quality and these two teams each possess plenty of that. Ignazio Abate is Milan's top stopper with 43 tackles so far, ahead of team-mates Aquilani (38) and Luca Antonini (32) but all three lag behind Inter's Esteban Cambiasso on 46 while Yuto Nagatomo matches his direct opponent Abate's total, as does the seemingly ageless Zanetti.
Interceptions
Recently in this blog we looked at this category, identifying Lucio as the league's best and that remains the same going into this fixture. His 4.8 per game give him a total of 67 for the season, some distance above his closest rival on either team - Milan's Thiago Silva on 54 - and even further clear of Inter's second best exponent of the art, Nagatomo on 46. These numbers could be vital on Sunday as each side looks to deny service to those excellent strikers in either team.
Shooting
Predictably Ibrahimovic has had more shots on goal than any player in either squad, taking a total of 54 at an average of 3.8 per game, some distance ahead of Kevin-Prince Boateng (2.5), Alex Pato (1.9) and Robinho (1.8). For the Nerazzurri, Giampaolo Pazzini leads the way with 48 and, although his average of 3.2 is lower than that of Sneijder (3.8), it is still above those of Diego Forlan (2.8) and Diego Milito (1.8).
Best of the Best
In a match between two such star-studded line-up's it is no surprise to see a number of players ranking high in WhoScored.com's player rating system and Team of the Season so far. Once more it is Zlatan Ibrahimovic who leads the way, his 8.27 markedly better than any other player in Serie A (Stevan Jovetic of Fiorentina is his closest rival on just 7.69). Again it is the injured Cassano (7.59) running him closest at Milan and just ahead of Thiago Silva (7.41). The highest ranked Inter man is 6th placed Lucio (7.49) who lags behind unranked (due to too few appearances) team-mates Thiago Motta (7.7), Maicon (7.55) and Sneijder (7.51).
Looking at the best XI, Maicon, Lucio and Ibrahimovic all take a place with Nagatomo earning a spot in the team of the month. If we look even more closely, based on just last weeks performances, the only Milan player to be selected is goalkeeper Christian Abbiati while Inter can look back at their 5-0 win and see places for Álvarez, Walter Samuel, Maicon and Milito. As San Siro once again becomes the centre of attention it remains to be seen if anyone can earn a berth this coming weekend.
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I honestly believe Inter have got the form and momentum heading into this game to beat Milan. It's always going to be a heated affair, and it's one of the closest Derby's around. But with their defensive record and with their strikers finally finding the net, I think they should have just enough to close the gap to 5
I think Milan will probably pip Inter to the game, with the attacking flair they have on show and the injuries for Inter (i hear Sneijder and maicon are both uncertaintys..?) the Rossoneri will have just enough. Saying that, if Inter are at full strength, there's no better team.
There's a certain Argentinian Man City sirker who could prove to be the tipping point for either of these teams if he could decide which club he wanted to sign for..!!
How do you call this one? Both teams are in amazing form, Inter have recovered from their shakey start and are flying, witha solid defence and a 5-0 win to head into this match. Whilst Milan are league leaders with the best striker in the league in form and ready to prove a point against his ex-employers... I for one, am stumped!